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Does Oliver Perez Float Your Boat?

http://www.inmowetrust.com/img/OliverPerez010409.jpg
This food for thought column from the Post actually made me do a little thinking, so I thought I'd share it with you. Kevin Kernan asks if Oliver Perez could possibly be a better option for the Yanks than Andy Pettitte, to fill out their rotation.

My initial thought was don't sign another pitcher to a long-term deal. When I looked a little closer, though, the answer wasn't that simple.




I wasn't quite sure what type of contract Perez would command, I figured he's young, and a Boras client, so the contract he'd be looking for was going to be 4+ years, maybe $12M per. I decided to bounce the idea off Tim from MLB Trade Rumors, he thought a deal for Perez could range anywhere from 3 years, $30+M to maybe 4 years, $44M.

Assuming the deal would fall somewhere in that range, I still have mixed feelings. Part of the appeal for Pettitte is that it would only be a one-year deal. Bring Andy in, let him eat his innings at the back of the rotation, and use the fifth spot in the rotation for some combination of Joba and Hughes. Then next season, when Andy walks, Joba and Hughes (or Kennedy, or whomever) could take the back two spots in the rotation. The youth movement, after all, is centered on the rotation, at least in the shorter-term.

Then again, Pettitte is 37 years-old, there's no guarantee he's even going to accept the $10M offer the Yanks have had on the table forever and he wasn't exactly lights-out last season.

When comparing their numbers from last season, I think a small edge goes to Pettitte. Perez had a slightly better ERA (4.22 to 4.54) and WHIP (1.40 to 1.41) and he k'd guys at a much higher rate. The biggest downside to Perez's game is his control. He walked an ungodly 105 batters in 194 innings in 2008. That's unacceptable.

Pettitte's batting average against was way too high (.290), but he did an excellent job of inducing ground balls (51%) and he kept the walks to a minimum. The last thing you have to take into acccount is that Perez pitching in the National League, in a very pitcher-friendly park, and Pettitte pitched in the American League East.

Perez has owned the Yanks, and seems to pitch better in bigger games, although he did lose 4 of 5 starts duging the Mets' epic folds of the past two Septembers.

All told, if both guys were 27 I'd prefer Pettitte. If you could get both guys for 1 year, $10M, I'd prefer Perez. When you take the whole picture into account, I'm uncertain. You can never have too many starters, that's a lesson we've learned the hard way over the past couple of seasons. If I'm Brian Cashman, I think I try to see if I can get Perez for 3 years, $30M. If he'll do that, I may just put both contracts on the table and see who signs first.

What do you guys think? Yea or Nay to Ollie?

14 Comments

Heck Yeah to Perez . younger .. better stuff than Andy . .Sorry but Andy is just about done. . Perez with the coaching and setting can be dominate

Dude,
Perez is REALLY bad. Terrible idea. Perez's whip IN THE NL was over 1.5....He is not good, will surely get overpaid...Even if he was willing to do a 1yr which he obviously wont be, I still rather sign Pettitte.

Hell no! We're looking for consistency above all else out of a low starter and we just threw our "inconsistent chip" at Burnett, hoping its boom or bust.

I'd rather just take the money for him and throw it in a 2-year deal to Manny. What do you think would have the team playing better.

Saying he's better than 37-year-old Andy Pettitte isn't much, and that fact isn't even CONCLUSIVE! It has to be argued!


I'd rather go get... Randy Wolf. Ben Sheets would be nice too.

I think Oliver Perez is this year's Carlos Silva.

It's the walks that kill him. I'd definitely prefer Wolf or Sheets over him, that goes without saying.

I'd pass on Perez, too. He's too inconsistent to warrant a multi-year deal.

Inconsistent from start to start, maybe. But his numbers over the past two seasons have been pretty consistent, and he's entering his prime at 27.

If there was some way to fix his control...but that's a dangerous road. I also don't like the 24 HRS allowed, especially with all those walks. Smells like 3-run bombs to me.

Fair enough, but the homer bug and control issues are glowing red flags. A multi-year deal at $11 million per for a No. 5 seems pretty steep.

I've been recommending Perez from the start for the Yankees on my blog. He's still young and absolutely destroys left handed batters. He's been compared to Sandy Koufax. Think about the countless times he would have to face David Ortiz, Markakis, Carlos Pena, BJ Upton, and other powerful lefties in the AL East. Also, he's used to pitching in New York, so he isn't as much of a risk as some of the other free agents on the market. Perez presents an opportunity for the Yanks to have a talented young pitcher on the team for a few more years. Plus, I think he will benefit from being around other young stud pitchers. This will be like the Marlins of '03 except with a much higher payroll.

You work for Scott Boras, don't you.

I don't. But now I realize where I heard that comparison. So that may be bs since it was from his agent. But Perez is a big game pitcher. I think he will benefit from playing crosstown a lot is all I'm saying. Also, he will not have nearly as much pressure as the number 5 guy.

Too much for a #5, also by giving him a contract of that length you're totally blocking the farm system.

The rotation would be..

1. CC (7 or 3 years)
2. Wang (2 more years I believe)
3. Burnett (5 years)
4. Joba (until he gives reason to take this away or 10 years)
5. Perez (3-4 years)

All are around for a few more years, so would we constantly have Hughes/Kennedy/Brackman/Betances waiting for injury?

You can't have too much pitching, true, but I think it would be a poor move by management to sign him for 3 years or more.

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I was at a Giants/Mets game in SanFran last summer. He gave up like 5 or 6 runs in the first and didn't even get out of the first from what I remember. A friend of mine who's a Braves fan and watches a lot of Mets games mentioned that Perez has this thing where a single inning will just destroy him, for no good reason. He'd be cruising for 4 and then get knocked around terribly in the 5th, and so on. And he gets all weird when the hits or the walks start. I remember that Giants game, and his body language was just horrible. Thanks, but no thanks.

22 out of 34 starts he went 6 innings or more. 8 of 34 starts he gave up 5 or more earned runs. When he was good, he was very good. When he was bad, he was very bad. That's tough to stomach when you're watching him get the ball every fifth day, but Pettitte had some stinkers last season as well.

The facts are that he is much younger than pettite and was better than him last season.For the first two months of las season he was terrible, pitching 6,7, and even 9-run games, but at the end of may he made an adjustment in his delivery, and only allowed more than 4 runs 1 or 2 times after that, and lowered his ERA from near 6 in late may, to 4.22 at the end of the season. On the other hand, pettite was quite consistent in the first half, and had an ERA over 6 in the second half. Also, perez is 10 years younger. All this indicates perez is likely to do better than he did in 08, while pettite is almost certain to keep declining, or, at best, do a similar job to what he did on 08.

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